The Week That Was: 2023-01-14 (January 14, 2023)
Dropped at You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Coverage Mission
Quote of the Week: “Every part ought to be made so simple as attainable, however not easier.” — Albert Einstein
Variety of the Week: 3.7 W/m2 (3.7 Watts per sq. meter)
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Coverage Mission (SEPP)
Scope: This TWTW raises a variety of points which embody the truth that the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC) doesn’t take a look at the primary outcomes of their stories towards all out there bodily proof. AMO physicist Howard Hayden discusses the failure to use the Stefan-Boltzmann legislation, which impacts all objects orbiting the Solar together with the Earth. The newest IPCC Evaluation Report (AR-6, 2021) has main gaps in understanding that primary bodily science in regards to the photo voltaic system.
Geologist Ian Plimer brings up the necessity to deal with main modifications within the Earth’s local weather in scales of time. There are a lot of influences on the Earth’s local weather and when politicians declare they will cease local weather change they don’t perceive that which they are saying.
Electrical Planning Engineer Russell Schussler has stated: “the electrical grid is the most important, most fantastic, most advanced machine ever.” This week, he addresses what makes the grid sturdy, sturdy, and able to withstanding sudden shocks. He additionally explains what weakens it, making it extra vulnerable to failure.
Virtually fifty years in the past, below President Carter, the dominant concern in Washington was that the US was about to expire of oil and pure gasoline, each of which have been used to generate electrical energy. One of many options was producing electrical energy with in depth photo voltaic vegetation within the US Southwest. Writing within the Nationwide Assessment, Southwest Public Coverage Institute researcher D. Dowd Muska evaluates the success or failure of huge expenditures within the Southwest for solar energy.
The US Shopper Product Security Fee has proposed banning using new pure gasoline stoves primarily based on utilizing rigorous arithmetic to provide absurd outcomes.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) will host the 2023 UNFCCC Convention of Events (COP 28) in Dubai, a luxurious metropolis constructed on oil wealth. UAE’s alternative of president for the conference is inflicting a stir.
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Is Earth within the Photo voltaic System? The idea that the Earth orbits the solar was lastly accepted after over a century of philosophical debate on the motion of heavenly our bodies after “On the Revolutions of the Celestial Spheres” by Nicolas Copernicus was printed in 1543 in regards to the time of his loss of life. As much as that point, most astronomers in Europe and India thought-about the Earth was stationary and all planets moved round it. The Danish astronomer Tycho Brahe, who rejected the concepts of Copernicus, believed the controversy could possibly be resolved by rigorously observing the motion of heavenly our bodies. Nevertheless it was his assistant, Johannes Kepler who used the observations to suggest that the actions of planets have been in ellipses with the solar as one of many foci. This and the work of Galileo on acceleration paved the best way for Isaac Newton.
It appears as if many commentators on local weather change are locked in an analogous controversy that may solely be resolved by cautious observations. Is carbon dioxide (CO2) an important determinant of the earth’s temperature or is it a bit participant in a posh system that isn’t absolutely understood?
In an interview by Tom Nelson, Atomic, Molecular, and Optical (AMO) physicist Howard Hayden explains that the UN IPCC, whose stories are used to say that CO2 is a vital determinant of Earth’s temperatures, understands the Stefan-Boltzmann legislation which determines the radiant warmth energy emitted from a floor, however doesn’t apply it to the output temperatures of their local weather fashions. In 1879, Austrian physicist Josef Stefan found the experimental consequence that the full radiant warmth energy emitted from a floor is proportional to the fourth energy of its absolute temperature. In 1884, Austrian physicist Ludwig Boltzmann derived the connection from thermodynamic issues, and in 1900 Max Planck derived the fixed of proportionality from first rules. It took the IPCC stories over thirty years to lastly point out this legislation explicitly, and the Sixth Evaluation Report (AR6, 2021) bought it flawed, in stating {that a} hotter planet radiates extra vitality to area. The floor of Venus is scorching sufficient to soften lead however radiates much less vitality to area than does the earth. (In comparison with the radiant warmth energy emitted by the floor of the Earth, the geothermal vitality emitted by the core is insignificant though subsurface oceanic and floor volcanoes can considerably change the greenhouse impact quickly by growing water vapor and emitting aerosols.)
Through the interview, Hayden takes us by means of the assorted warmth stability drawings utilized by the IPCC from 1995 to 2021 and asks what’s lacking. It’s not till the Sixth Evaluation Report (AR6, 2021) {that a} quantity seems for the greenhouse impact (G) however that quantity doesn’t seem within the heat-balance drawing in AR6. (Once more, the greenhouse impact is significant for advanced life on the floor of the planet and including greenhouse gases to the environment will enhance the Earth’s temperatures considerably, different issues being fixed. The query is how a lot?)
The 5 heat-balance charts introduced by the IPCC since 1995 present floor emission values (in watts per sq. meter) which might be appropriate for identified floor temperatures on the time, however there are three main failures. The primary is that not one of the heat-balance charts exhibits the greenhouse impact, the quantity that’s supposedly IPCC’s specialty. The second is that IPCC has by no means understood that the radiative forcing (IPCC terminology) from greenhouse gases merely provides to the greenhouse impact. The third is that there aren’t any heat-balance drawings akin to any IPCC predictions of the long run. It’s a trivial matter to point out that the rise in potential to dam IR from going to area (“radiative forcing”) from doubling CO2 focus is completely incompatible with the rise in floor radiation that Stefan-Boltzmann says should happen with the expected enhance in floor temperature, however IPCC’s omissions disguise the outrageous incompatibility. See hyperlink below Difficult the Orthodoxy.
Scales of Time: Writing in Spectator, Australia, geophysicist Ian Plimer brings out the significance of understanding scales of time in discussing local weather change. He begins:
“For greater than 80 per cent of time, Earth has been a heat moist greenhouse planet with no ice. We dwell in uncommon instances when ice happens on continents. This didn’t occur in a single day. The good southern continent, Gondwanaland, shaped about 550 million years in the past. It occupied 20 per cent of the world of our planet and included Antarctica, South America, Australia, South Africa, and the Indian subcontinent. Gondwanaland was lined by ice when it drifted throughout the South Pole 360-255 million years in the past. Proof for this ice age is within the black coal districts of Australia, South Africa, and India.
“The breakup of Gondwanaland began about 180 million years in the past. About 140-120 million years in the past, Australia was joined to Antarctica and loved a temperate local weather, had alpine glaciers that shed icebergs into heat seas and plant and animal variations developed to deal with the lengthy intervals of winter darkness.
“If Antarctica is to lose its ice sheets to finish the present ice age, plate tectonics should transfer the continent northwards or fragment Antarctica into smaller land lots. Components of Antarctica are at the moment being fragmented which is why there are greater than 150 scorching spots and volcanoes in rift valleys beneath Antarctic ice. Plate tectonics should additionally widen the Bering Strait to permit extra heat Pacific Ocean water to enter and heat the Arctic.
“Australia separated from Antarctica 100 million years in the past and continues to maneuver northwards at 7 centimeters per 12 months. The present ice age began when South America separated from Antarctica some 34 million years in the past. Plate tectonics remoted Antarctica after South America had moved northwards and the Drake Passage shaped. Circum-polar currents shaped and prevented heat, southward-moving water from reaching Antarctica. In consequence, the Antarctic ice sheets shaped.
“Arctic ice shaped 2.5 million years in the past when plate tectonic-driven volcanoes in central America joined North America to South America and stopped Pacific and Atlantic Ocean waters from mixing. This was exacerbated by a supernova explosion that bombarded Earth with cosmic particles to provide cloudiness and cooling.
“The Earth has been slowly cooling for the final 50 million years from instances when life thrived and quickly diversified. In these hotter instances, there have been no mass extinctions resulting from pure warming and, if the planet is warming right now, the previous exhibits us that life will thrive and diversify much more.”
Plimer illustrates the foolishness by some commentators in asserting that an estimated international temperature and an estimated carbon dioxide focus for a interval tens of hundreds of thousands in the past can be utilized to estimate the affect of carbon dioxide on Earth’s temperatures right now. The Earth is ever altering, and people modifications have main influences on the Earth’s temperatures. As Plimer writes:
“On a scale of tens of hundreds of thousands of years or extra, the Earth’s local weather is pushed by plate tectonics. On a scale of a whole bunch of 1000’s of years, the Earth’s local weather is pushed by orbital cycles which deliver Earth nearer to or extra distant from the Solar. On a scale of 1000’s of years to many years, the Earth’s local weather is pushed by variations in vitality emitted from the Solar.”
“If governments, the UN or local weather activists need to cease the traditional planetary technique of local weather change, then they should cease plate tectonics, cease variations within the Earth’s orbit and cease variations in photo voltaic output.”
After discussing the impression of the final interval of glaciation which reached its most 18,000 to twenty,000 years in the past, Plimer concludes:
“We’re placing all our efforts and losing trillions of taxpayers’ {dollars} into attempting to forestall legendary human-induced international warming, but we nonetheless don’t put together for the inevitable annual floods, droughts, and bushfires, not to mention longer-term photo voltaic – and orbitally – pushed international cooling.
“We now have a disaster of single-minded stupidity exacerbated by a dumbed-down schooling system supported by incessant propaganda, pushed by monetary pursuits and political activist authoritarianism.”
That many politicians declare they will cease local weather change is pure hubris, from Greek tragedy of extreme self-pride resulting in retribution. See hyperlink below Difficult the Orthodoxy.
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The Proper Factor? Writing in Judith Curry’s weblog, Local weather And so forth., Planning Engineer Russell Schussler asks are teachers and others suggesting important modifications to the grid finding out the appropriate issues? He finds that typically they aren’t. Schussler writes:
“Half 1 of this sequence mentioned how the findings of teachers are sometimes misunderstood in order to make the transition to a excessive degree of renewable penetration appear a lot simpler than it will likely be. A significant a part of the issue is that teachers research some issues, decide these are solvable and that’s then misinterpreted to indicate that higher rising issues are additionally solved or simply solvable. On this posting we are going to take a look at what Teachers are finding out to find out if they’re asking the appropriate questions.”
Importantly, Schussler defines what makes a grid system sturdy:
“What makes a system sturdy or sturdy? In additions to high-capacity transmission traces, the anchoring supply is massive rotating machines that function in synchronism with the grid. They supply inertia, they will reply rapidly by means of ramping, they will inject vars, they enhance brief circuit MVA (mega volt amperes). All good issues vital for a dependable energy system. Asynchronous technology, sources which don’t spin with the system, comparable to wind and photo voltaic, don’t as readily add energy to a system; reasonably they have a tendency to lean on different assets.
“Synchronous turbines present important reliability providers that are wanted for the operation of the grid. The first providers are voltage management, frequency management, and balancing providers. Standard turbines (coal, pure gasoline, nuclear, hydro) readily present these providers as a result of they rotate in synchronism with the grid. Not all assets do. To cite from the US Workplace of Vitality Effectivity & Renewable Vitality”:
‘Nevertheless, newer applied sciences comparable to wind, photo voltaic, many vitality storage applied sciences, and new forms of load controls function by means of using energy electronics and management programs that don’t function in the identical manner as historic applied sciences. Newer applied sciences provide fascinating (daring italics added) alternatives as a result of their management programs may be tuned to function related (daring italics added) to traditional technology.’
‘Relaxation assured the ‘fascinating alternatives’ provided by newer applied sciences shall be extraordinarily difficult, and earlier than these challenges may be met a lot analysis growth and profitable engineering will should be carried out or the system will dangerously degrade. Additionally observe using the phrase “related”; don’t imagine that it means “equally properly in a passable method.” (I can throw a soccer much like the best way Tom Brady does however imagine me I couldn’t maintain a highschool offensive drive.) The challenges related to integrating massive quantities of wind and photo voltaic don’t encompass minor particulars that may simply be labored out as soon as we discover a method to get sufficient megawatt hours on the proper time from wind and photo voltaic assets to interchange fossil gas assets. Wind and photo voltaic will add complexity, value, and uncertainty for a very long time. The much less properly these assets carry out, the higher the chance of service reductions and blackouts. As famous, photo voltaic, wind and batteries, when offering energy to the grid, usually lean on typical expertise.
“It’s a essential query as to what’s going to present assist when wind and photo voltaic have displaced the key supporting components of the facility grid. Hydro capability is fairly properly maxed out in most areas. Nuclear has potential to scale back CO2 whereas supporting the system however faces appreciable social and political challenges. With out some at the moment unspecified method so as to add important robustness to the system by means of the supply of important reliability providers, the elevated retirement of typical synchronously rotating technology and its substitute with asynchronous wind and photo voltaic will proceed to make blackouts and outages extra frequent and extreme. There’s a lot work to be executed to make photo voltaic and wind higher emulate important reliability providers, however such work is within the early phases and the outcomes are at greatest combined. Let’s take a look at what’s being studied by teachers supporting a internet zero transition. One would hope that these main considerations can be a chief space of debate and analysis throughout the educational neighborhood.”
Schussler discusses an article on scholarly publications referring to Internet Zero together with Vitality System Fashions. He notes:
“What’s placing and most regarding is what isn’t discovered on this graphic of key phrases. Reliability, stability, inertia, voltage management, balancing, vars, spinning reserve, ramping, fast standby, contingencies, damping and oscillations for instance. Phrases generally related to the interconnection course of of recent assets are nowhere to be discovered inside this evaluate of educational papers as regards to a internet zero transaction. One other notable omission is nuclear. Nuclear energy is the very best hope for a low carbon useful resource that might present crucial grid assist. Is the group collectively critical?”
Schussler discusses some “prospects” of what could also be sooner or later however don’t exist right now such because the “Supergrid.” He concludes:
The educational literature arguing for a internet zero transition of the electrical grid focuses on lesser issues and ignores the bigger roadblocks. As a complete the physique of research may be seen to falsely recommend that the transition is inside attain. The papers on this literature ought to embody the disclaimer: “This paper solely appears at a restricted set of issues related to a internet zero transition. Fixing the issue(s) studied right here nonetheless leaves many unsolved and doubtlessly unsolvable issues on the desk and moreover it’s seemingly that this answer could irritate current issues in addition to creating new ones.” Barring main breakthroughs within the areas of crucial technical challenges (which don’t appear to be receiving a variety of consideration on the coverage degree) the grid can not reliably assist the envisioned enhance penetration of wind and photo voltaic must get wherever near a internet zero objective. Influential teachers as a physique encouraging an vitality transition whereas specializing in lesser considerations, discussing distant hopes and ignoring big obstacles will result in elevated likelihoods of higher prices, worsening reliability and ultimately insufferable blackouts.
Schussler hyperlinks to a video illustrating how rapidly a substation hearth in Florida impacted the Jap Interconnection demonstrating the significance of inertia in producing services to guard the grid from failure. It’s disturbing to understand that monetary regulators now suppose they need to impose their views on the grid. See hyperlink below Difficult the Orthodoxy.
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Southwest Photo voltaic: In keeping with the Nationwide Renewable Vitality Laboratories (NREL) with dry situations and a excessive photo voltaic gradient the US southwest is the very best place within the nation to find solar energy. In keeping with D. Dowd Muska the 50-year experiment is failing:
“Within the Southwest, photo voltaic generates a mere 6.4 % of utility-scale energy (energy from services the place whole technology capability is one megawatt or higher), regardless of the area having fun with the sunniest skies in America. Whereas California (16.7 %) and Nevada (14.4 %) had the heaviest photo voltaic shares, the drop-off within the different states we studied was profound: Utah (8.1 %), Arizona (5.5 %), New Mexico (5.0 %), Texas (3.1 %), and Colorado (3.0 %). Coming in final — and by a rustic mile — was the Sooner State, at a miniscule 0.1 %.
“These disappointing figures are all of the extra perplexing when one considers the huge degree of presidency succor that has flowed the photo voltaic business’s manner for the reason that late Nineteen Seventies, the period of Annie Corridor, the Bee Gees, and the Star Wars Vacation Particular. In 2012, an audit by the Authorities Accountability Workplace discovered that federal businesses have overseen a whole bunch of ‘initiatives that assist photo voltaic vitality throughout the 4 key federal roles’: R&D; ‘fleets and services,’ ‘commercialization and deployment,’ and ‘regulation, allowing, and compliance.’ For many years, wildly beneficiant tax credit have been provided on the federal and state ranges. And within the late Nineties, lawmakers started to undertake renewable portfolio requirements, which required energy suppliers to generate or buy ‘inexperienced’ electrical energy. In Arizona, 15 % of energy should fulfill these requirements by 2025. In Nevada, the rule is 50 % by 2030. And in New Mexico, all electrical energy is remitted to be ‘zero carbon’ by 2045.”
Muska goes by means of the growing vitality prices, which California is experiencing considerably, and concludes:
“In brief, photo voltaic has not been shining very vibrant because it got here on the scene within the ’70s. Certainly, even within the sun-drenched Southwest, photo voltaic has confirmed inefficient, unreliable, and — when all prices are thought-about — costly. That ought to be a warning: If it struggles right here, in ideally suited situations, how properly can it’s anticipated to carry out in the remainder of the nation?”
One wonders in regards to the success of the good New York authorities experiment to make use of big subsidies to make western New York State round Buffalo a Photo voltaic Heart. See hyperlink below Different, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Photo voltaic and Wind
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Linear Absurdity: The US Shopper Product Security Fee proposed banning the sale of recent stoves counting on pure gasoline utilizing a brand new research claiming that burning pure gasoline causes important bronchial asthma in kids. Steve Milloy demolishes the research stating:
“It’s not precise analysis on kids. It’s a meta-analysis of beforehand printed (and ignored) research — a research of in any other case unpersuasive research. The authors did a literature seek for earlier epidemiologic research on gasoline stoves and bronchial asthma in youngsters after which simply combined these outcomes collectively in an effort to contrive statistical significance. This can be a bogus approach for quite a few causes together with publications bias within the part research — i.e., research with null outcomes aren’t printed.”
“The research outcomes, together with the part research, are weak statistical associations — i.e., noise vary correlations. The research outcomes, seemingly together with the part research, usually are not statistically important both.
“Bronchial asthma is an allergic illness. There aren’t any allergens in pure gasoline. So the research has no organic plausibility. Nobody is aware of what causes bronchial asthma in kids and so competing causes couldn’t be dominated out.
“The declare that gasoline stoves are answerable for 12% of childhood bronchial asthma – an epidemiologic idea referred to as ‘attributable threat’ – is totally bogus as a result of epidemiological research can solely be used to affiliate exposures with illness. They can’t be used to find out threat of illness as a result of (1) the underlying information isn’t consultant of the inhabitants; and (2) epidemiologic research are simply statistics (i.e., correlation isn’t causation) and can’t be utilized by themselves to find out cause-and-effect relationships.”
It now seems that the Federal authorities is abandoning the nationwide ban. Sadly, many state and native authorities officers have succumbed to the Linear No Threshold absurdity used and can proceed to ban a clear, extremely efficient method to warmth and cook dinner. See hyperlink below Difficult the Orthodoxy and Article # 2.
Fascinating Selection: In keeping with an article within the Wall Avenue Journal:
The United Arab Emirates named the chief government of its nationwide oil firm because the president of this 12 months’s United Nations local weather summit, drawing criticism from environmental activists.
The Gulf state stated Thursday that Sultan al-Jaber, chief government of Abu Dhabi Nationwide Oil Co., or Adnoc, can be tasked with framing the agenda of the COP28 summit in Dubai, which opens on the finish of November. Mr. Jaber, a high Emirati technocrat, can be the nation’s minister for business and expertise and particular envoy on local weather change, taking part in a number one function within the nation’s transfer to finance and produce extra renewable and nuclear vitality.
Mr. Jaber stated COP28 comes throughout a ‘crucial 12 months in a crucial decade for local weather motion.’ He stated the U.A.E., the world’s seventh-biggest oil producer, would undertake an inclusive method to the local weather summit that ‘engages all stakeholders from private and non-private sectors.’
Let the screaming start. See Article #1
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Additions and Corrections: A number of readers inquired why final week’s TWTW emphasised the article written by Wallace Manheimer that appeared within the Journal of Sustainable Improvement. It was emphasised as a result of it appeared in a peer reviewed journal printed in North America and it’s complete. Often, US journals reject competent articles that query the findings of the IPCC. Manheimer’s article shall be helpful in making feedback on the competence of the draft of the Fifth US Nationwide Local weather Evaluation due on January 27, 2023. See https://www.federalregister.gov/paperwork/2022/11/10/2022-24611/availability-for-public-comment-on-the-draft-fifth-national-climate-assessment-nca5-united-states
Subsequent week, TWTW will talk about a wide-ranging interview of MIT Physics Professor emeritus Richard Lindzen which covers many points on how science is performed in the US and deficiencies in local weather research. As well as, TWTW will evaluate the current e book The Primacy of Doubt by famous international local weather modeler Tim Palmer.
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Variety of the Week: 3.7 W/m2 (3.7 Watts per sq. meter) In his interview, Howard Hayden brings up that the IPCC states {that a} doubling of CO2 will end in a rise in floor emissions of infrared radiation of three.7 W/m2 (3.7 Watts per sq. meter). The problem is calculating how a lot of a temperature distinction will this make?
Difficult the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Bodily Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2013
Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/paperwork/CCR/CCR-II/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Organic Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By A number of Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change, April 2019
http://retailer.heartland.org/store/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Obtain with no cost:
Why Scientists Disagree About World Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Obtain with no cost:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Exercise, Guidelines the Local weather
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
World Sea-Degree Rise: An Analysis of the Knowledge
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Coverage Transient, Might 20, 2019
Howard Hayden: “The IPCC does NOT apply the Stefan-Boltzmann law to their outcomes”
By Tom Nelson, Podcast, Jan 10, 2022
What Does the Science Say? Dr. Richard Lindzen
By Jordan Peterson, Podcast, Through WUWT, Jan 8, 2023
What local weather disaster?
Previous warming has by no means been pushed by a rise in carbon dioxide
By Ian Plimer, Spectator Australia, Jan 14, 2023 [H/t R Clutz]
Teachers and the grid. Half II: Are they finding out the appropriate issues?
By Planning Engineer (Russell Schussler), Local weather And so forth. Jan 9, 2023
Speedy fluctuations in oxygen ranges coincided with Earth’s first mass extinction
Preliminary fast lower in marine oxygen ranges was adopted by a fast enhance in oxygen
Press Launch, NSF, Jan 10, 2023
https://beta.nsf.gov/information/rapid-fluctuations-oxygen-levels-coincided-earths?utm_medium=e-mail&utm_source=govdelivery
Hyperlink to paper: Speedy marine oxygen variability: Driver of the Late Ordovician mass extinction
By Nevin Kozir, et al., AAAS Science Advances, Nov 18, 2022
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abn8345
From the summary: “. As the one ‘Huge 5’ extinction that occurred throughout icehouse situations, this interval is a vital trendy analog to constrain environmental feedbacks.”
No, New Research Does Not Hyperlink Fuel Stoves with Bronchial asthma in Youngsters
The brand new research the Shopper Product Security Fee needs to depend on to ban gasoline stoves is basic junk science.
By Steve Milloy, JunkScience.com, Jan 9, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
No, new study does not link gas stoves with asthma in children
Stranded Belongings
By Donn Dears, Energy For USA, Jan 10, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Are battery-powered vehicles (BEVs) a fad?]
Latest paper on W. Hudson Bay polar bears consists of new official sea ice freeze-up information
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 12, 2023
“In different phrases, physique weight information–so crucial to the argument that the well being of WH polar bears is declining resulting from sea ice loss–remains to be being withheld.”
Difficult the Orthodoxy – Jay Lehr — RIP
Jay Lehr (1938 – 2023)
The Heartland Institute, Jan 11, 2023
https://www.echovita.com/us/obituaries/oh/ostrander/jay-h-lehr-15813705
Defending the Orthodoxy
Annual 2022 World Local weather Report
By Workers, NOAA, Nationwide Facilities for Environmental Data, 2023
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/entry/monitoring/monthly-report/international/202213
“The 12 months 2022 was the sixth warmest 12 months since international data started in 1880 at 0.86°C (1.55°F) above the twentieth century common of 13.9°C (57.0°F).”
[SEPP Comment: Where were the recording stations in the polar regions, bulk of Eurasia, Africa, South America, and the oceans in 1880? How does infrared radiation in a warming atmosphere penetrate the oceans beyond 1 millimeter?]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Local weather change makes warmth waves, storms and droughts worse–Say climate attribution fashions
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 13, 2023
Hyperlink to report: Explaining Excessive Occasions from a Local weather Perspective
This BAMS particular report presents assessments of how human-caused local weather change could have affected the energy and chance of maximum occasions.
By Stephanie Herring, NOAA, Andrew Hoell, NOAA, Nikos Christidis, UK Met Workplace &Peter Stott, UK Met Workplace, American Meteorological Society, 2023
Peer Assessment Editors: John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M and Texas State Climatologist, Andrew King, College of Melbourne, Tom Knutson, NOAA/GFDL and Friederike Otto, Imperial Faculty London
https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-from-a-climate-perspective/
“It’s important that on this newest paper there isn’t a try to make use of actual world information to show that the occasions they speak of are literally getting worse. We all know, as an example, that the info on hurricanes exhibits that they aren’t, a truth which is even acknowledged by official our bodies comparable to NOAA.”
[SEPP Comment: The authors of the BAMS report are statistically challenged?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
World temperature 2022 – identical once more
By David Whitehouse, Internet Zero Watch, Jan 13, 2023
“What is kind of obvious is that the worldwide temperature report within the twenty first century spends lengthy intervals comparatively flat. The so-called hiatus, as an example, lasted from circa 2001 and 2013 and was ended by a really sturdy El Nino. Since then, there was one other interval of comparatively unchanging temperature. Noticeable will increase in temperature happen within the lead-in to an El Nino, comparable to the rise of approx. 0.3°C between 2011-2015.”
“Wanting on the distribution of current warming the dominance of the arctic [2017-2021] is clear. It nearly leads one to recommend that the phrase international warming ought to be changed by arctic warming!”
The World Emissions Experiment: A 33-12 months Audit
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Jan 10, 2023
It’s temperature prediction time once more!
By Andrew Montford, Internet Zero Watch, Jan 13, 2023
Local weather Embarrassment: Anthropogenic Local weather Change is a Hoax however World Warming is Actual
By ?, The Air Vent, Jan 7, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
Exxon scientists predicted present local weather change 40 years in the past: research
By Saul Elbein, The Hill, Jan 12, 2023
“The findings by Harvard and the Potsdam Institute for Local weather Influence Analysis are ‘the nail-in-the-coffin of ExxonMobil’s claims that it has been falsely accused of local weather malfeasance,’ lead writer Geoffrey Supran, a analysis affiliate at Harvard, asserted in an announcement.
[SEPP Comment: Unable to find paper. According to the article, Exxon studies, publicly available, had a skill level of 75%, James Hansen 65%. Who lied to the public? Another example of smear with no evidence?]
Completely satisfied New Highest Tide for 2023 – Sunday twenty second January
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Weblog, Jan 10, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Will the rising seas fall back again?]
Change in US Administrations
Biden officers lay out street map for net-zero transportation by 2050
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Jan 10, 2023
Issues within the Orthodoxy
Germany To Double Fuel Energy Capability
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 7, 2023
“Germany wants at the very least 60GW of energy at peak intervals. This plan will take gasoline energy up near 50GW, which is a startling admission that there shall be instances when wind and photo voltaic’s contribution shall be minimal.
“Coal energy capability, together with lignite, is at the moment 36GW, so the closure of this shall be primarily offset by new gasoline capability.”
Measurement Points — Floor
HadCRUT Knowledge Manipulation Modifications 2000-2014 Warming Development From 0.03°C to 0.14°C Per Decade
By Kenneth Richard. No Tips Zone, Jan 9, 2023
Hyperlink to paper: CMIP6 GCM ensemble members versus international floor temperatures
By Nicola Scafetta, Local weather Dynamics, Sep 18, 2023
https://hyperlink.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-022-06493-w
“Changes add important warming to twenty first century temperature developments.”
Altering Climate
‘Greens’ Ignore India’s Deadly Chilly Spells
Chilly, which is usually accompanied by illness, is an even bigger killer than warmth
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Jan 13, 2023
US Local weather Is Getting Much less Excessive, Not Extra
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 12, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Difference between data and headlines.]
2022 Knowledge Are In: Pacific Storm Development Continues To Drop, Alarmist Claims Contradicted!
By P. Gosselin, No Tips Zone, Jan 13, 2023
“Pacific typhoons shaped and people making landfall in Japan each have seen no rising pattern for the previous 70 years.”
UN-hyping international local weather disasters in 2022
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Jam 11, 2023
German Renewable Energies Professional: World Warming Is Going To Pause As North Atlantic Cools
By Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, Klimanachrichten, (Translated, edited by P. Gosselin), No Tips Zone, Jan 8, 2023
A 654-year streamflow historical past of Argentina’s Neuquen River
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Jam 11, 2023
From the CO2Science Archive:
The Northwest’s Climate Scorecard at Winter’s Midway Level
By Cliff Mass, Climate Weblog, Jan 13, 2023
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-northwests-weather-scorecard-at.html
A reminder that chilly is worse than warmth
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Jam 11, 2023
“Therefore ‘Households in western New York have been scrambling to seek out meals, medication and different necessities Monday after a historic blizzard blocked roads and lower off electrical energy, forcing many main supermarkets and pharmacies to shut.’ Heatwaves don’t try this type of factor.”
“Canada has an annual fundraising occasion for the homeless referred to as, look forward to it, ‘The Coldest Night time of the 12 months.’ In some way ‘The Hottest Night time of the 12 months’ simply doesn’t have the identical impact.”
Bushes schmees
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Jam 11, 2023
Altering Local weather
A Evident Inconsistency In The Claimed Forcing Values Driving Previous Versus Current Local weather
By Kenneth Richard, No Tips Zone, Jan 12, 2023
Hyperlink to newest research: Final interglacial sea-level proxies within the glaciated Northern Hemisphere
By April S. Dalton, et al. Earth System Science Knowledge, Apr 4, 2022
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/1447/2022/
Altering Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Latest paper on W. Hudson Bay polar bears consists of new official sea ice freeze-up information
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 12, 2023
“In different phrases, physique weight information–so crucial to the argument that the well being of WH polar bears is declining resulting from sea ice loss–remains to be being withheld.”
Agriculture Points & Concern of Famine
You’re neither a farmer nor a local weather scientist, are you?
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Jam 11, 2023
“And likewise, on the ominous drop of atmospheric CO2 to 180 ppm throughout the Final Glacial Most, simply 30 ppm above the extent at which all older C3 photosynthesis vegetation actually would die, together with all of the timber, although even then life would discover a manner.”
Decreasing Requirements
It’s official: All over the place in science there’s a mysterious lack of ground-breaking papers
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Jan 13, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Conformity to government funding?]
Concern, Flooding, Forecasting & Australia’s 2022 Official Rainfall Statistics
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Weblog, Jan 8, 2023
Hyperlink to abstract: Local weather abstract info for 2022
By Workers, Bureau of Meteorology, Jan 6, 2023
http://www.bom.gov.au/local weather/present/annual/aus/
Why The WMO Refuse To Neglect The Previous
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 7, 2023
Coastal Erosion? Properly, It’s Local weather Change, Innit?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 8, 2023
[SEPP Comment: BBC avoiding the thrust of a complaint on its incompetent journalism.
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Glacial Armageddon! 2/3 to vanish by 2100!
By David Middleton, WUWT, Jan 14, 2023
Link to article: Study: Two-thirds of glaciers on track to disappear by 2100
By Seth Borenstein, AP, Jan 9, 2023
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2023-01-09/study-two-thirds-glacier-disappear-by-2100#:~:text=Mostly%20small%20but%20well%2Dknown%20glaciers%20are%20marching%20to%20extinction.&text=In%20an%20also%2Dunlikely%20worst,year%202100%2C%20the%20study%20said.
What do young climate campaigners want to see in 2023?- BBC
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 12, 2023
New York Times Saves The Planet
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 12, 2023
Video: https://realclimatescience.com/2023/01/new-york-times-saves-the-planet/
Text: https://realclimatescience.com/2023/01/new-york-times-saved-the-planet/
Heat buckles roads or something
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jam 11, 2023
“Up to now winter has been the culprit for the heaving and freezing that demolishes roads and bridges, while heavy reliance on road salt has been a constant source of corrosion and damage to concrete structures. How will winters becoming milder ruin everything?”
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Last 8 Years Were the Hottest on Record
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Jan 10, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
As Germany’s Economy Falters, Green-Socialist Government Moves To Redefine “Prosperity”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 11, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Police start clearing German village condemned for coal mine
Several dozen activists remained camped out in the village as police slowly removed further barricades in muddy conditions.
By Staff, AP, Jan 11, 2023
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/police-start-clearing-german-village-condemned-coal-mine-rcna65271
Solar Energy Rejections Soared in 2022
By Robert Bryce, Real Clear Energy, Jan 12, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/01/12/solar_energy_rejections_soared_in_2022_875161.html
Questioning European Green
Coal power facility to stay open for extra two years in blow to net zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 12, 2023
Green Jobs
Africa Today: A Very Different Continent, Lessons From the U.S.-Africa Summit
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, Jan 10, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/01/10/africa_today_a_very_different_continent_lessons_from_the_us-africa_summit_874669.html
Non-Green Jobs
European Steel Industry Facing Potential Collapse
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 13, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Obviously in need of subsidies?]
Subsidies and Mandates Without end
Funds for windfarms to “swap off” soar to quarter billion kilos
Press Launch, Internet Zero Watch, Jan 9, 2023
“Internet Zero Watch’s director, Dr Benny Peiser, stated:
‘Whether or not by means of utter incompetence, or shameful cynicism, the Authorities, Nationwide Grid and Ofgem have put in place an electrical energy system that permits renewables operators to tear off the patron left, proper and centre. They appear to carry UK households and companies in contempt.’”
EPA and different Regulators on the March
Biden administration proclaims largest-ever funding alternative for addressing environmental equality
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Jan 10, 2023
“The EPA stated about $100 million can be out there for initiatives across the nation which might be aimed toward advancing equitable environmental outcomes for communities which might be underserved or face disproportionate quantities of air pollution.”
“General, the laws gives the EPA with $3 billion in environmental and local weather justice block grants directed towards targets like decreasing air pollution and mitigating local weather dangers.”
Vitality Points – Non-US
So, there’s a market in any case
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Jam 11, 2023
“Simply months after Germany’s chancellor was despatched packing by Canada’s Prime Minister when he got here searching for pure gasoline, with a jibe about there being no marketplace for the stuff in Europe, the primary cargo from North American shores arrived. From the US.”
Chris Skidmore’s Rubber Stamp Of Internet Zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 13, 2023
“Shock, shock!! The federal government’s “Unbiased Report” has rubber stamped its Internet Zero agenda!!”
“Since its very inception, the Internet Zero Act was enacted as a ‘good concept’, with none plan as to the way it could possibly be carried out, or a clearly costed funds.”
Germans Required To Change 30-12 months-Previous Fuel Furnaces…New Oil Furnaces Banned Beginning 2026
By P Gosselin, No Tips Zone, Jan 7, 2023
New gasoline boilers could possibly be banned inside a decade [UK]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 13, 2023
“Dieter Helm, a professor of financial coverage at Oxford College and a authorities adviser, stated the evaluate’s estimates of prices have been ‘extremely speculative’, with the prices and financial savings of warmth pumps ‘extremely optimistic’.
“‘My very own view is that the prices are prone to be a lot larger,’ he stated.
“‘Internet zero is extremely essential and I believe it crucial to inform the general public that that is prone to imply they have to pay for the air pollution they trigger and save to fund and finance the funding.’”
Vitality Points — US
Key figures quash recommendations of gasoline range ban
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Jan 11, 2023
Hyperlink to questionable research: Inhabitants Attributable Fraction of Fuel Stoves and Childhood Bronchial asthma in the US
By Talor Gruenwald, et al. Worldwide Journal of Environmental Analysis and Public Well being, Dec 21, 2022
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/1/75
From summary: “We discovered that 12.7% (95% CI = 6.3–19.3%) of present childhood bronchial asthma within the US is attributable to gasoline range use.”
Very important Vitality Classes for Virginia and America
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Jan 9, 2023
Oil and Pure Fuel – the Future or the Previous?
Chris Wright (Liberty Vitality): Setting the Tone for 2023
By Robert Bradley Jr., Grasp Useful resource, Jan 413, 2023
Ruby, Ruby, When Will You Be Mine – Tallgrass Bid Breathes New Function Into Languishing Ruby Pipeline
By Shettal Nasta, RBN Vitality, Jan 8, 2022
https://rbnenergy.com/ruby-ruby-will-you-be-mine-tallgrass-bid-breathes-new-purpose-into-languishing-ruby-pipeline
[SEPP Comment: New England needs natural gas, but cannot get it from Pennsylvania, much less than New York. So why not transport the gas across the continent to the West Coast that needs it?]
Different, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Photo voltaic and Wind
Huge photo voltaic goes Huge Bust: Largest photo voltaic plant on the earth dies earlier than it may be constructed
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Jan 11, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Transmit power from a 120 square kilometer (46.3 square mi, 29,653 acres) solar plant in Australia to Singapore]
Southwestern Photo voltaic: Brilliant Shining Disappointment
By D. Dowd. Muska, Nationwide Assessment, Through R. Clutz, Science Issues, Jan 9, 2023
Different, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Vitality — Storage
Carbon Seize Is a Woke Fantasy
By John M. Contino, American Thinker, Jan 12, 2023
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/01/carbon_capture_is_a_woke_fantasy.html
“In case you’re questioning the place the cash comes from for these enterprises, the Division of Vitality has introduced many tens of hundreds of thousands of {dollars} in funding for analysis and implementation of carbon seize, utilization, and storage (CCUS) initiatives. Moreover, carbon credit for business are shaping as much as be a strong incentive for producing personal and public investor capital.”
Different, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Automobiles
The Coming Future Of Electrical Automobiles: One thing Right here Does Not Add Up
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Jan 7, 2023
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/weblog/2023-1-7-the-coming-future-of-electric-vehicles-something-here-does-not-add-up
Electrical automotive makers put the brakes on UK manufacturing as a result of they’re too costly to promote
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 13, 2023
[SEPP Comment: More subsidies needed?]
Eco Numpties Sad With Charging Prices
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 11, 2023
[SEPP Comment: I have to pay to charge my EV? But I’m environmentally pure!]
California Dreaming
Local weather disaster in California
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Jam 11, 2023
Hyperlink to: Distinctive Years: A Historical past of California Floods and Drought
By J.M. Guinn, Historic Society of Southern California, Los Angeles (1890)
Robson: “Society of Southern California, they weren’t uncommon occasions: they have been adopted by extreme floods in 1825, 1832, 1842, 1850-52, 1861-62, 1867-68, 1884 and 1886, with the deluges interrupted by repeated droughts. But someway nobody blamed mankind for all this hassle.”
However the years of deluge or dryness, he [Guinn] boasts that ‘California has probably the most superb local weather on the earth.’ He avers that any true Californian would make this identical boast, and settle for the years of duress as the worth to be paid for the exceptionally nice climate the remainder of the time”
SoCalGas Shock: California Fuel Costs Skyrocket 128% in One 12 months
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 9, 2023
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Again To The Horse & Cart
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 9, 2023
ABC Information Acknowledges Younger Athletes Are Dying Of Coronary heart Assaults
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Jan 11, 2023
“ABC Information says there was a rise in coronary heart illness, and says it’s brought on by international warming.”
EV Refuse Vehicles Grounded Via Lack Of Chargers!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 10, 2023
“£6.5 million for 25 lorries works out at £260,000 a bit…”
“The science isn’t that sophisticated”
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Jan 11, 2023
Washington Submit: “California’s climate is what local weather change appears like.”
You’re silencing us by not letting us silence you
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Jam 11, 2023
“Our science is displaying that the planet is dying. It’s terrifying. Every part is in danger. As scientists, we’ve great leverage, however we have to use it. We will wake everyone up”.
ARTICLES
1. U.A.E. Names Oil Chief to Run COP28 Local weather Summit
Environmental activists criticize appointment of Sultan al-Jaber to handle U.N. convention
By Summer season Mentioned, WSJ, Jan. 12, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-a-e-names-oil-chief-to-run-cop28-climate-summit-11673542016
TWTW Abstract: Along with the half that’s included in This Week part, the next is fascinating:
“A spokesperson for COP28 U.A.E. stated Mr. Jaber has labored as a diplomat, authorities minister and enterprise chief within the vitality and renewables sector.
“‘His expertise uniquely positions him to have the ability to convene each the private and non-private sector to result in pragmatic options to attain the targets and aspirations of the Paris Local weather Settlement,’ the spokesperson stated.
“Local weather activists beforehand criticized Egypt for extending the primary invitation to oil-and-gas corporations to participate in COP27, which was hosted within the Pink Sea resort city, Sharm El Sheikh. Local weather activists stated Gulf oil producers blocked stronger language on phasing down fossil fuels within the closing settlement.”
COP28 could also be an fascinating convention.
*********************
2. Kathy Hochul’s Newest Brainstorm
The Governor needs to ban pure gasoline in all New York buildings.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Jan. 10, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kathy-hochuls-latest-brainstorm-new-york-natural-gas-ban-fossil-fuels-11673393016?mod=hp_opin_pos_5#cxrecs_s
TWTW Abstract: The transient article begins:
“Governor Kathy Hochul just lately lamented that too many individuals are leaving New York, and the state needed to do extra to get them again. The newest proof that she has no concept the best way to do it’s her proposal on Tuesday to ban using fossil fuels in all new buildings.
“She’d ban using fossil fuels for heating and in home equipment in all new small buildings as early as 2025, and in bigger buildings by 2028. You received’t be capable of purchase a natural-gas heating system within the state beginning in 2030.
“She stated in her State of the State deal with Tuesday that this can fight local weather change, which is nonsense. What New York does to restrict CO2 emissions shall be dwarfed by emissions from China, India and Africa.
“In the meantime, she is going to make New Yorkers much more depending on an electrical-power grid that’s more and more unreliable. The state has closed a big nuclear plant, has blocked pure gasoline pipelines by means of the state, and is making itself extra depending on offshore wind energy that will not be developed.”
Rising vitality prices and growing unreliability will immediate folks leaving the state to return?
