At present was a giant day on the way in which to New York’s power future: Our “Local weather Motion Council” voted to approve the ultimate “Scoping Plan,” telling us all how we’re going to obtain, amongst different targets, 70% of statewide electrical energy from renewable power sources by 2030 and a zero-emission electrical energy system by 2040. The press launch has the headline “New York State Local weather Motion Council Finalizes Scoping Plan to Advance Nation-Main Local weather Legislation.” Right here is also a hyperlink to the Scoping Plan itself.
Looking on the Scoping Plan and its Government Abstract, I discover that the 2 greatest parts in attending to this zero-emissions electrical energy system are supposedly going to be offshore wind generators and power storage. I’ve coated the power storage points extensively in different posts. However how about this offshore wind factor? Absolutely, to commit New York to transitioning to utilizing offshore wind as the first supply of electrical energy solely seven years from now, they will need to have a really stable sport plan for a way it will occur.
Truly, as with every part else right here, they don’t know. As of immediately, there isn’t a single functioning offshore wind turbine in New York State, neither is there a single offshore wind turbine underneath development. The local weather cultists on the Local weather Motion Council suppose that they will simply order this up, after which it would occur.
From the Government Abstract, here’s what the CAC says shall be needed to realize its emissions targets:
[The Scoping Plan] requires that the State set up:
6,000 megawatts (MW) of distributed photo voltaic by 2025
3,000 MW of power storage by 2030
9,000 MW of offshore wind by 2035.
That 9,000 MW of offshore wind may initially sound like lots. At 10 MW per turbine (big), that may be 900 of those behemoths.
The EIA provides the whole annual quantity of electrical energy consumed in New York State for 2021 as 141,423,778 MWh. Divide by 8760 (hours within the yr) and also you get common demand of 16,144 MW. 9,000 MW begins off sounding like greater than half of that. Not unhealthy!
However after all wind generators solely generate at about 35% of capability averaged over the yr. So this 9,000 MW of offshore wind generators will at greatest give us a median of about 3,000 MW, so properly underneath 20% of our electrical energy demand for the yr. Oh, and so they’re planning to double electrical energy demand by electrifying automobiles and residential warmth, so make that 10%. And peak demand is as a lot as about 25,000 MW, 50,000 MW after doubling. When the height hits you may’t rely on the 9,000 MW of offshore wind for something,. So why are we doing this once more?
Undoubtedly, if this have been being completed competently, there should be a working demonstration challenge to indicate how the offshore wind shall be constructed after which built-in into the present system? Mistaken. Fairly, the plan seems to be to let some gigantic backed contracts after which hope that one thing will get constructed some day.
Here’s a hyperlink to the web site of the New York Vitality Analysis and Growth Company (NYSERDA). They declare to have 4300 MW of offshore wind tasks “underneath energetic growth” within the state, which is lower than half of the 9,000 MW supposedly coming. Of the 4,300 MW, virtually all is within the Atlantic Ocean off New York Metropolis and Lengthy Island. Right here is the important thing piece of their map:
However go to the Empire Wind web site, for instance, and also you discover a timeline indicating that they’re nearly as much as the purpose of submitting purposes for permits to federal and state authorities. Building — if it ever really happens — is a number of years sooner or later. Nothing totally different over on the Beacon Wind web site.
And what if well-funded environmental opposition emerges to those tasks? That’s virtually inevitable. For example, there have already been lawsuits by rich owners in search of to stop cables from these windfarms from making landfall of their areas. Right here is an instance of one such introduced in 2021 within the City of East Hampton.
Is there any offshore wind challenge farther alongside than these from which we will get an thought how issues may develop? Sure, there may be the Commonwealth Wind challenge in Massachusetts, off the coast of Martha’s Winery. That one was approaching the beginning of development, when in September the contractor instructed the state that it could have to “rewrite the contracts” due to a pointy enhance in prices. On Friday (December 16) the contractor gave up on renegotiation efforts, and mentioned it needs out of the contracts altogether. James Freeman of the Wall Road Journal has the story in his Better of the Net column immediately, counting on reporting from Jon Chest of the Boston Globe:
The state’s nascent offshore wind business suffered a giant setback on Friday when Avangrid instructed state regulators it needs to finish its contracts with three main utilities to construct an enormous wind farm south of Martha’s Winery… In September, chief govt Pedro Azagra mentioned Avangrid would postpone development of Commonwealth Wind, which may ultimately present sufficient energy for as much as 750,000 properties, by pushing its completion date out to 2028, and would wish to rewrite the contracts due to a pointy enhance in commodity prices. With Friday’s transfer, Avangrid has given up on these renegotiation efforts.
In the meantime, once more from Freeman, over in Rhode Island, regulators are contemplating suspending a allow already granted for a cable to deliver ashore energy from one other challenge referred to as Mayflower Wind. The difficulty there may be not the environmental affect of the cable, however quite the monetary viability of the entire challenge:
Rhode Island utilities regulators are contemplating suspending Mayflower Wind’s utility for transmission cables that may run up the Sakonnet River to the previous web site of the Brayton Level Energy Station in Somerset after the developer raised questions in regards to the monetary viability of the primary phases of the $5 billion offshore wind challenge it has proposed off Massachusetts.
Is there any likelihood that New York will fare any higher? Unlikely. Anticipate lengthy delays and calls for for tons extra money earlier than something will get constructed.
In the meantime, what’s the complete variety of offshore wind generators at the moment working the the U.S.? In keeping with Wikipedia right here, the quantity is 7 — 5 for Block Island (a part of Rhode Island) and a pair of off Virginia. The identical article says the Biden Administration plans to extend the capability of offshore wind by round an element of over 1000 by 2030. Positive.
Learn the total article right here.
