By widespread demand, welcome to our new Wings-Watch service, during which Scot Goes Pop can be – as and when required – fact-checking a few of the extra doubtful and outlandish claims made by the well-known Yoon-curious weblog Wings Over Scotland, which lately raised eyebrows by asserting it was “coming again” despite the fact that it had by no means truly closed.
I need to admit the primary installment of Wings-Watch has come up rather a lot faster than I anticipated, nevertheless it’s proved obligatory as a result of the previously Sure-supporting Wings blogger Stuart Campbell has chosen to commit his whole “comeback” (sic) blogpost to a flippantly rewritten model of a number of of his earlier posts during which he made quite a few severely dodgy claims about opinion polling, in an try to buttress his narrative that Nicola Sturgeon’s management has been a failure. (After all, the assumption that Ms Sturgeon has failed is completely defensible and I do not totally disagree with it, nevertheless it’s however necessary for anybody who claims their output is “journalism” to keep away from making bogus or distorted claims of truth to assist their arguments.)
Wings Declare #1: “Salmond grew to become First Minister with…assist for independence at 25% and falling.”
VERDICT: Deliberately deceptive. Mr Campbell’s textual content hyperlinks to a graph from Ipsos UK (previously Ipsos Mori), which states within the small print that knowledge between 1999 and 2008 comes from the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey. That survey isn’t comparable with normal independence polls as we all know them at present, as a result of it didn’t ask the binary-choice query “Ought to Scotland be an impartial nation?”. It as a substitute offered independence as one in all three constitutional choices – a format which till very lately virtually at all times produced decrease assist for independence than normal binary-choice polling. Moreover, Do not Is aware of weren’t faraway from the Social Attitudes Survey, in distinction to the headline outcomes from normal independence polls within the present-day which at all times strip Do not Is aware of out. Primarily Mr Campbell is presenting readers with an apples-and-oranges comparability to make it look as if Sure assist elevated between 2007 and 2014 way over it truly did.
For instance, there was binary-choice polling in 2007 which confirmed assist for independence at 39.5% and opposition at 45%. With Do not Is aware of eliminated, that works out as roughly Sure 47%, No 53% – truly a smaller hole than the one recorded on the independence referendum seven years later. You will discover that just about any declare that independence assist was decrease than 30% at any level within the decade main as much as the indyref depends upon the sleight of hand of not stripping out the Do not Is aware of from a cherry-picked ballot that was notably poor for Sure, and/or utilizing a multi-option ballot that’s not comparable with present polls.
Really, Mr Campbell has shot himself within the foot through the use of the Social Attitudes Survey as his baseline for independence assist in 2007, as a result of that call alone drives a coach and horses by means of his narrative that Ms Sturgeon has failed to extend the Sure vote. Not like standard polling, the Social Attitudes Survey has discovered an enormous improve in independence assist since Ms Sturgeon grew to become chief – it is gone from 33% in 2014 (the final survey carried out when Mr Salmond was chief) to 52% in the newest survey in 2021. Certainly, with one exception there’s been a gradual year-on-year improve – since 2014, the sequence of outcomes has been 33 – 39 – 46 – 45 – 51 – 52.
As long-term readers will know, there is no such thing as a higher admirer of Alex Salmond than myself, however I however should profess myself deeply puzzled on the subtext of Mr Campbell’s suggestion that independence assist was “falling” when Mr Salmond grew to become First Minister in 2007. Mr Salmond’s second stint as SNP chief began in 2004, not in 2007, so if the implication is that he can take the credit score for any improve in Sure assist between 2007 and 2014, it could presumably be equally logical for him to take duty for what occurred to independence assist between 2004 and 2007.
Wings Declare #2: “After seven years he bequeathed Sturgeon…assist for independence persistently within the lead.”
VERDICT: Lie. There seems to have been solely three independence polls between the independence referendum and Nicola Sturgeon changing into SNP chief. Two of these polls confirmed a Sure lead and one confirmed a No lead – so it is self-evidently unfaithful to say that independence was “persistently” within the lead. Moreover, one of many two polls with a Sure lead (which paradoxically was commissioned by Mr Campbell himself) used a non-standard query.
Wings Declare #3: “However not one of the final six independence polls, and simply three of the final 30, have proven Sure within the lead.”
VERDICT: Primarily a lie, with one necessary caveat. What I imply right here is that Mr Campbell helps his declare with a screenshot from the record of independence polls from Wikipedia, however he is cynically used an out-of-date screenshot which excludes the newest Ipsos UK ballot exhibiting a Sure majority. Beneath you will discover an up-to-date screenshot of the identical desk, taken at 6.34pm this night, and which as you’ll be able to see contains the Ipsos UK ballot. So on that foundation the declare that “not one of the final six” polls have proven Sure within the lead is an outright lie.
The necessary caveat I discussed is that the Ipsos UK ballot used a non-standard query. However, it is there within the Wikipedia record this night and that is the record Mr Campbell is claiming as his supply.
If anybody was harbouring hopes that Mr Campbell might need a higher dedication to factual accuracy now that he is “returned” (sic) from his “relaxation” (sic), this may not look like probably the most encouraging of begins.
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