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Weekly Local weather and Vitality Information Roundup #527 – Watts Up With That?


The Week That Was: 2022-11-05 (November 5, 2022)
Dropped at You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Coverage Challenge

Quote of the Week: “[W]e examine the results of [a theory’s] computation to nature…[and] examine it straight with observations, to see if it really works. If it disagrees with experiment, it’s incorrect. In that easy assertion is the important thing to science. — Richard Feynman, The Character of Bodily Regulation, 1965 [H/t Happer & Lindzen]

Variety of the Week: $1.3 Trillion a Yr

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Coverage Challenge (SEPP)

Scope: The next points might be mentioned following the idea that in bodily science, bodily proof separates science truth from science fiction.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a rare fuel on this planet. With out it, all inexperienced life would stop. All advanced life, which depends on inexperienced life, would stop. The EPA’s declaration that “the Administrator finds that greenhouse gases within the environment could fairly be anticipated each to hazard public well being and to hazard public welfare” is extraordinary. It requires extraordinary bodily proof. The EPA has none. As a substitute, it depends on the opinions of presidency functionaries who’re usually blind to how science works.

In submitting an Amicus Curiae (“buddy of the court docket.”) transient (written argument), Professors William Happer and Richard Lindzen, and the CO2 Coalition imagine that “the ‘science’ relied upon by the EPA in its Endangerment Findings is critically flawed and never really scientific.”

Final week, TWTW mentioned a lecture by Professor Wyss Yim of Hong Kong College stating that there are two distinctively completely different occasions categorized as El Niños, one incorrectly. Conventional El Niños happen when regular situations within the Pacific change. In contrast, a Heat Pool El Niño happens when a pool of heat water seems within the oceans, be it Pacific, Atlantic, or different. These apparently random occasions are the results of submarine volcanoes and will have a major impression on world climate. Due to fashionable satellite tv for pc instrumentation, these occasions will be tracked. This week AAAS Science printed a paper stating that “January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano reached the mesosphere”, one of many submarine volcanoes mentioned by Professor Yim.

Craig Idso has an essay on the hazards of lowering CO2 emissions, one thing which authorities entities and their supporters don’t take into account when calculating the supposed dangerous results of CO2 emissions.

The 27th annual convention to “save the planet” from lifegiving CO2 will begin subsequent week (COP 27). There’s a typical outpouring of far-fetched research on far-fetched harms.

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Authorities Endangerment Discovering: Professors Happer and Lindzen and the CO2 Coalition assert:

“that the denial to rethink the Endangerment Findings is with out a legitimate scientific foundation, arbitrary, and capricious. For a number of many years, Amici have studied the science and proof purportedly underpinning the Endangerment Findings and are specialists within the fields of physics and atmospheric sciences from which the EPA’s proof is drawn.” (p 1)

Chosen quotes making use of to the scientific technique are cited beneath. The web page numbers apply to the web page within the precise doc, not the recorded web page. For instance, p 1 turns into web page 11 of 47 within the recorded doc. The citations are usually not given beneath.

“INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF ARGUMENT

The CO2 Coalition is a non-profit company comprised of greater than 100 scientists, engineers, and vitality specialists, publishing on varied features of local weather change and associated fields.

Professors Happer and Lindzen are profession physicists who, for many years, have specialised in making use of the scientific technique to radiation physics and dynamic warmth switch.

Scientific information is decided by the scientific technique, via which theoretical predictions are validated or rejected by observations. If the theoretical predictions don’t work, the speculation is rejected. That’s actual science. [Boldface added]

Scientific information isn’t decided by government-controlled opinions, consensus, peer evaluation, or theoretical fashions that don’t work. These are false science. This transient applies the scientific technique to the Endangerment Findings and its supporting Technical Help Doc and demonstrates each are scientifically corrupted and thus have to be rescinded for the next causes.

• IPCC Authorities-Managed Opinions. The Endangerment Findings and the Technical Help Doc extensively depend on Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (“IPCC”) assessments as a “major scientific and technical foundation” for the Findings. The IPCC is authorities managed and thus points solely authorities opinions, not actual science as the image beneath—of presidency representatives figuring out content material at IPCC’s Abstract for Policymakers’ writing assembly—exhibits.[Picture not shown here}

This is not how scientific knowledge is determined. Governments do not determine scientific knowledge; the scientific method does. [Boldface added]

The risks of governmentally decided science have been tragically demonstrated a couple of century in the past when Stalin appointed Trofim Lysenko because the czar of Russian agricultural science within the former Soviet Union. Lysenko suppressed the scientific technique and dictated as an alternative that his agricultural theories be used. Lysenko’s government-dictated theories led to famine and thousands and thousands of deaths via hunger and illness. It’s a poignant reminder that the IPCC’s government-dictated ‘science’ should not be used within the Endangerment Findings and Technical Help Doc.

• IPCC Theoretical Fashions Don’t Work. Each the Endangerment Findings and the Technical Help Doc must be withdrawn as a result of they essentially depend on IPCC theoretical fashions that predict catastrophic warming until fossil gas CO2 is eradicated. The IPCC local weather fashions then and most not too long ago have been confirmed conclusively by observations to fail by over-predicting warming. Due to this fact, they have to be rejected and never used. See, infra, § IV.

• Peer Evaluation and Consensus. Each the Endangerment Findings and Technical Help Doc use peer evaluation and consensus extensively, which, as famous, doesn’t decide actual science.

• Censorship of the Contradicting Actual Science. By utilizing “the scientific assessments of the IPCC, USGCRP, and the NRC” as “finest reference” for science, 74 Fed. Reg. 66,511, the EPA inadvertently admits it censored the overwhelming proof from actual science that demonstrates there isn’t a hazard that fossil gas CO2 will trigger catastrophic world warming. See, e.g., infra, § V.

• The Endangerment Findings and Technical Help Doc are Driving Disastrous Penalties. Opposite to widespread reporting, CO2 is important to life by producing meals via photosynthesis. Growing CO2 within the environment by burning fossil fuels will produce extra meals for individuals worldwide. Elimination of fossil fuels in response to the Endangerment Findings might be doubly disastrous by lowering the quantity of meals out there to individuals worldwide and eliminating the most important supply of low-cost vitality.

Thus, actual science requires that each one the false science be faraway from the Endangerment Findings and Technical Help Doc. This requires deleting all of the government-dictated IPCC materials, all IPCC theoretical local weather fashions and situations, and all citations to consensus. Consequently, the Endangerment Findings and Technical Help Doc might be with out ample required actual scientific assist.

Accordingly, it’s Amici’s scientific opinion that the Endangerment Findings and Technical Help Doc are primarily based, partly, on authorities dictated materials and have to be withdrawn earlier than they trigger extra disastrous discount within the meals provide worldwide and the tip of inexpensive and dependable fossil gas vitality for individuals worldwide, future generations, and america.” (pp 7 to 11)

TWTW helps the view of Professors Happer and Lindzen that the Endangerment Discovering endangers the integrity of American bodily science itself, changing bodily proof with government-controlled groupthink. The transient continues:

“ARGUMENT I. THE ENDANGERMENT FINDINGS AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT DOCUMENT ARE NOT BASED ON THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD

In response to the Endangerment Findings, ‘the Administrator finds that greenhouse gases within the environment could fairly be anticipated each to hazard public well being and to hazard public welfare.’ 74 Fed. Reg. 66,497.

Authorities-Managed Opinions. The Administrator emphasised that three authorities organizations have been the ‘major scientific foundation for the Findings:

The foremost assessments by the U.S. International Local weather Analysis Program (USGCRP), the Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC), and the Nationwide Analysis Council (NRC) function the first scientific foundation supporting the Administrator’s endangerment discovering.

The Technical Help Doc…summarizes scientific findings from the most important assessments of the USGCRP, the IPCC, and the NRC accompanies these Findings.

‘It’s EPA’s view that the scientific assessments of the IPCC, USGRCP, and the NRC characterize the most effective reference supplies for figuring out the final state of information on the scientific and 4 74 Fed. Reg. 66,497’ (footnote omitted). 5 Id. at 66,510. technical points earlier than the company in making an endangerment choice.

Unintentionally, the Administrator made clear she selected to make use of government-determined opinions as ‘science,’ relatively than scientific information decided by the scientific technique: [Boldface added]

‘The USGCRP, IPCC, and NRC assessments have been reviewed and formally accepted by, commissioned by, or in some circumstances authored by U.S. authorities companies and particular person authorities scientists. These experiences already mirror important enter from EPA’s scientists and the scientists of many different authorities companies.’

Id. at 66,511 (emphasis added).

Of the three, IPCC opinions are the dominant supply of purported ‘science’ underlying the Endangerment Findings and Technical Help Doc, and certainly all ‘Web Zero’ insurance policies to remove fossil gas CO2 emissions within the U.S. and worldwide.

Nonetheless, opposite to the vigorous assertions by the IPCC that it supplies the most effective local weather science on this planet, the IPCC is government-controlled and, subsequently, the IPCC’s Summaries for Policymakers and evaluation experiences are authorities dictated opinions with little scientific worth, all of which is elaborated on in part III. 6 Id. at 66,511 [Boldface added]

Theoretical Fashions Don’t Work. As famous, the Endangerment Findings and Technical Help Doc essentially depend on IPCC theoretical fashions that predict catastrophic world warming until fossil gas CO2 is eradicated. The IPCC local weather fashions utilized in assist of the Endangerment Findings proven beneath are probably the most dominant fashions used to assist the argument that fossil gas CO2 have to be eradicated and lowered to ‘Web Zero’ to keep away from catastrophic world warming. Particularly, the Endangerment Findings assert: ‘In response to local weather mannequin simulations summarized by the IPCC…[b]y the tip of the century, projected common world warming… [will range] from 1.8 to 4.0 °C (3.2 to 7.2 °F).’ 74 Fed. Reg. 66,519. The Technical Help Doc equally depends on IPCC theoretical local weather mannequin predictions to say that by the tip of the century there might be ‘a warming vary of three.2°F to 7.2°F.’” (pp 11 to 13)

The transient then demonstrates the wild mannequin outcomes which can be meaningless as a result of the fashions are usually not examined towards bodily proof. The transient has a piece on “Actual Science” which is decided by validating theoretical predictions with observations: “False Science” is decided by consensus, peer evaluation, authorities opinion, fabricated information or fashions that don’t work. One other part is titled “The IPCC is government-controlled and thus solely points authorities opinions, not actual science.”

The fourth part is titled “The IPCC theoretical fashions don’t work and thus beneath fundamental scientific technique should not be used.” One other part is titled “Censored Actual science proves fossil gas CO2 won’t trigger catastrophic world warming.” This part consists of graphs of 600 million years of atmospheric CO2 and temperature information and an element titled Atmospheric CO2 is now “closely saturated,” which in physics means extra CO2 may have little warming impact.

The part earlier than the transient conclusion is titled “The Endangerment Findings and Technical Help Doc assist of ‘Web Zero’ fossil gas CO2 insurance policies will disastrously cut back meals worldwide and remove fossil fuels, the most important supply of low-cost vitality for the US and folks worldwide.”

This transient is the best, well-articulated, sensible summation of the false science that went into the disastrous Endangerment Discovering that TWTW has seen. The results of this ideological choice embrace the perversion of American bodily science. All involved readers and all residents are inspired to learn it. See hyperlink beneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.

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Unprecedented Statement: On January 15, 2022, the submarine volcano with some islands, Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai, erupted forcefully. Its estimated Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) is six, much like the land-based Mount Pinatubo in 1991. Due to fashionable satellite tv for pc instrumentation the volcanic plume was measured to achieve an altitude of 57 km (35 miles). It despatched atmospheric shock waves, sonic booms, and tsunami waves around the globe. NASA Goddard posted:

“Analyzing information from NASA’s Ionospheric Connection Explorer, or ICON, mission and ESA’s (the European Area Company) Swarm satellites, scientists discovered that within the hours after the eruption, hurricane-speed winds and strange electrical currents fashioned within the ionosphere – Earth’s electrified higher atmospheric layer on the fringe of area.”

NASA JPL posted:

“The underwater eruption within the South Pacific Ocean additionally blasted an infinite plume of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – sufficient to fill greater than 58,000 Olympic-size swimming swimming pools. The sheer quantity of water vapor may very well be sufficient to quickly have an effect on Earth’s world common temperature.”

The article linked beneath said:

“‘We’ve by no means seen something prefer it,’ mentioned Luis Millán, an atmospheric scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. He led a brand new examine inspecting the quantity of water vapor that the Tonga volcano injected into the stratosphere, the layer of the environment between about 8 and 33 miles (12 and 53 kilometers) above Earth’s floor.

“Within the examine, printed in Geophysical Analysis Letters, Millán and his colleagues estimate that the Tonga eruption despatched round 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – equal to 10% of the water already current in that atmospheric layer. That’s practically 4 instances the quantity of water vapor that scientists estimate the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption within the Philippines lofted into the stratosphere.” [A teragram is about 1.1 US tons].

In response to the plain language abstract of the article:

“In contrast to earlier robust eruptions, this occasion could not cool the floor, however relatively it may probably heat the floor as a result of extra water vapor.”

Some years in the past, Joe D’Aleo and Joe Bastardi (now with WeatherBell Analytics) individually recognized heat spots within the oceans, referred to as heat pool La Niños by Professor Yim. They’re created by underseas (submarine) volcanoes. Final week on his Saturday Abstract, Bastardi spent 20 minutes presenting an array of charts supporting his claims that these eruptions are inflicting a warming of the environment significantly over the Arctic. They happen earlier than the peaks proven in atmospheric temperature tendencies proven over the previous ten years. (Earlier than then, detailed ocean temperature measurements didn’t exist.) The water vapor from the January volcanic eruption could trigger one other peak in atmospheric temperature tendencies in late 2022 and 2023.

See hyperlinks beneath Difficult the Orthodoxy, Measurement Points – Environment, https://www.nasa.gov/function/goddard/2022/solar/nasa-mission-finds-tonga-volcanic-eruption-effects-reached-space and https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/information/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere

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City Warmth Island Impact: The surface-air temperature information utilized by the IPCC and its followers has a infamous defect in that it isn’t adjusted for urbanization that’s occurring worldwide. The City Warmth Island impact displays the warming attributable to changing greenery with pavement and utilizing drainage to remove moist areas. Roy Spencer presents a starting of what’s wanted to regulate the floor information. Within the overview he states:

“A comparatively new world dataset of urbanization modifications over the 40-year interval 1975-2014 primarily based upon Landsat information is used to find out the typical impact urbanization has had on floor temperatures. A way is introduced to compute the magnitude of the City Warmth Island (UHI) impact on temperatures utilizing the instance of summertime 09 UTC (early morning) Built-in Floor Database (ISD) hourly information (largely from airports) over the interval 1973-2022 by evaluating urbanization variations to temperature variations from closely-spaced climate stations. The outcomes for the japanese U.S. result in a 50-year warming pattern 50% lower than that from the official NOAA homogenized floor temperature dataset. It’s possible that the daytime reductions in temperature tendencies might be much less dramatic.” [Boldface added]

Spencer describes his effort and concludes, partly:

“The urbanization impact on floor temperature tendencies for August at 09 UTC (close to the time of every day minimal temperature) leads to a 50% discount in these tendencies over the past 50 years. From some preliminary seems to be I’ve had on the information from different months and instances of day I’d say it will possible be the higher restrict of de-urbanization changes. So, it’s possible that tendencies in daytime temperature close to the time of the every day most won’t be lowered practically as a lot as 50%.

“However given the truth that all CMIP6 local weather fashions produce U.S. summer time temperature tendencies larger than the NOAA observations means the discrepancy between local weather fashions and observations is even bigger than at the moment suspected by many people. John Christy and I imagine it’s time for a brand new floor temperature dataset, and the methodology outlined above seems to be like a viable strategy to that finish.” [Boldface added]

Certainly, it’s previous time to take away this travesty of bodily science. See hyperlink beneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.

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Advantages of CO2: Over time, Craig Idso of CO2 Science has written concerning the advantages of CO2 fertilization of vegetation. Writing for Grasp Useful resource, he addresses a unique situation – the hurt that can happen by lowering CO2. For this he cites an experiment of plant bulbs that have been a significant supply of carbohydrates for people 75 thousand to 125 thousand years in the past. Crops grown beneath lowered CO2, together with the IPCC’s declare of pre-industrial CO2 of a focus of 280 components per million (ppm), did poorly in contrast with a focus of 390 ppm. Immediately’s focus is about 420 ppm. So, the packages to cut back atmospheric CO2 could really endanger human well being and welfare. See hyperlink beneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.

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Saving the Planet: The drumbeat to save lots of the planet is intensifying and all of the IPCC followers are lining up. The Lancet produced probably the worst of well being research. It emphasised the deaths because of warmth. Nonetheless, it ignored that many of the populated world experiences a winter, and extra individuals die of publicity to chilly than warmth. However in saving the world, there may be apparently no cause to know the world. See hyperlink beneath Defending the Orthodoxy and Article # 1

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Variety of the Week: $1.3 Trillion a Yr. Paul Homewood exhibits that in accordance with the Wall Avenue Journal, China, India, and different creating nations going to COP 27, search $1.3 Trillion a 12 months for the supposed injury that carbon dioxide emissions have precipitated and to construct various vitality initiatives. Because the UN IPCC experiences of dangerous CO2 emissions are a counterfeit bodily science, will the UN pay them in in counterfeit cash? See hyperlink beneath Funding Points.

Difficult the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Bodily Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2013

Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/paperwork/CCR/CCR-II/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Organic Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By A number of Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change, April 2019

http://retailer.heartland.org/store/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/

Obtain with no cost:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Local weather-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Quantity-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About International Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Obtain with no cost:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Exercise, Guidelines the Local weather

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

International Sea-Degree Rise: An Analysis of the Knowledge

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Coverage Transient, Might 20, 2019

Difficult the Orthodoxy

Transient of Amici Curiae Dr. William Happer, Dr Richard Lindzen, and the CO2 Coalition in Help of Petitioners and Reversal

USCA Case #22-1139, Filed Oct 21, 2022

Scientists determine the highest-ever recorded volcanic plume

By Employees Writers, Oxford UK (SPX), Nov 04, 2022

https://www.terradaily.com/experiences/Scientists_identify_the_highest_ever_recorded_volcanic_plume_999.html

Hyperlink to paper: The January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano reached the mesosphere

By Simon Proud, et al, AAAS Science, Nov 3, 2022

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo4076

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Hydration of the Stratosphere

By L Millan, et al, Geophysical Analysis Letters, July 1, 2022

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381

De-Urbanization of Floor Temperatures with the Landsat-Primarily based “Constructed-Up” Dataset

By Roy Spencer, His Weblog, Nov 2, 2022

The Risks of Low Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations

By Craig D. Idso, Grasp Useful resource, Nov 1, 2022

Eco-extremists are main the world in direction of despair, poverty, and hunger–Jordan Peterson

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 29, 2022

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