Tomorrow morning in Frankfurt, Stephen Kenny will sit within the Festhalle ready on the draw that may decide an important 12 months of his soccer life.
reland will study their opponents for normal Euro 2024 qualifying, the marketing campaign that may determine whether or not Kenny’s time as boss is remembered as successful or a failure.
His staff will likely be third seeds, with the Nations League marketing campaign simply gone a missed alternative to progress into pot two.
Eire have been additionally third seeds final time round on this match and Mick McCarthy’s aspect weren’t capable of safe a top-two berth to guide computerized qualification with Switzerland and Denmark doing sufficient to justify their seeding.
In Kenny’s first full marketing campaign as supervisor, the aborted World Cup 2022 mission, Eire’s third-seed standing pitted them in opposition to Portugal and Serbia, who in the end proved too sturdy.
The remorse lingering from that interval would be the 2020 Nations League performances that price Eire the prospect to rise as much as second-seeded standing.
With France and England in pot two for this draw, Kenny will naturally be eager to keep away from them. Each supervisor in all the different pots will likely be feeling the identical means.
Right here’s what it is advisable to learn about a draw which is scheduled to start out at 11.0am Irish time.
The place can I watch it?
The draw will likely be proven reside on RTE 2 from 11am and can be being streamed reside on the RTE Participant in addition to UEFA.com.
What number of groups are within the draw?
Fifty-three of UEFA’s 55 member nations will likely be within the draw with hosts Germany already certified and Russia suspended after the invasion of Ukraine
What number of teams?
There will likely be 10 teams, seven teams of 5 groups and three teams consisting of six groups.
What number of qualify from every group?
The highest two from every group progress to the 24-team finals, with the remaining three locations crammed by way of play-offs in March 2024.
How do you qualify for a play-off?
That is essential. Third place doesn’t qualify a staff for a play-off, a mistaken perception that’s typically repeated. Play-off standings are already decided by UEFA Nations League performances. It doesn’t matter if Eire end third of their qualifying group or plum final with zero factors. Their play-off prospects are the identical in every situation.
What does that imply for Eire?
Ending third of their UEFA Nations League group leaves Eire twenty sixth within the Nations League charts, and tenth in League B (because the second better of the 4 third-placed sides). If six of the 9 League B groups ranked above Eire qualify routinely by way of the common course of then Eire are assured a play-off. However the play-off door would additionally widen if the vast majority of the highest-ranked League A sides made it via.
That is complicated. Can you set it in easier phrases?
If Eire usually are not amongst the 20 computerized qualifiers, they’ll be hoping that the edges above them within the Nations League standings get there slightly than groups ranked decrease. In different phrases, the less shocks there are in common qualifying, the extra seemingly it’s Eire get a play-off.
Qualifying would save us plenty of permutations then?
Sure, it most definitely would. In any other case, there’ll be plenty of nerves subsequent October and November based mostly round exercise elsewhere.
What are the pots then?
Pot 1: Netherlands*, Croatia*, Spain*, Italy*, Denmark, Portugal, Belgium, Hungary, Switzerland, Poland
Pot 2: France, Austria, Czech Republic, England, Wales, Israel, Bosnia, Serbia, Scotland, Finland
Pot 3: Ukraine, Iceland, Norway, Slovenia, IRELAND, Albania, Montenegro, Romania, Sweden, Armenia
Pot 4: Georgia, Greece, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, Kosovo, Bulgaria, Faroe Islands, North Macedonia
Pot 5: Slovakia, Northern Eire, Cyprus, Belarus, Lithuania, Gibraltar, Estonia, Latvia, Moldova, Malta
Pot 6: Andorra, San Marino, Liechtenstein
(*Netherlands, Croatia, Spain and Italy are the Nations League finalists so will likely be drawn out first into Pots A-D which will certainly be five-team teams)
What do Eire need from Pot 1?
Hungary have been very spectacular of late in opposition to superior groups however they nonetheless aren’t an particularly intimidating prospect and might not be as efficient as a high canine. Poland are a powerful aspect however a beneficial Pot 1 situation. Portugal and Switzerland usually are not terrifying as we all know from current historical past. Belgium and Spain are apparent opponents to keep away from.
What about Pot 2?
England and France could be a nightmare, particularly mixed with a top-ranked Pot 1 outfit. A reunion with Finland could be good whereas Bosnia and Israel stand out as acceptable conclusions, though the latter are enhancing. Wales (if Gareth Bale steps away) and Scotland are native choices that will arrange a combative group.
And the remainder of the Pots?
The Nations League has combined issues up a bit with the likes of Slovakia and Northern Eire dropping to Pot 5 once they have been at Eire’s degree on the outset of the competitors. Kenny may do with out touchdown both of them. Equally, Turkey, Greece and Georgia are unattractive Pot 4 outcomes.
In contrast, outdated foes Luxembourg and Azerbaijan could be welcomed and, whereas they’re clearly getting higher, it’s laborious to keep away from the easy conclusion that the Faroes could be a pleasant Pot 4 consequence given a few of the alternate options. A six-team group would open up the prospect for confidence-boosting wins. At this stage of their growth, that wouldn’t do any hurt to Eire.
When will the video games happen?
They are going to be performed throughout 5 home windows in 2023; March, June, September, October and November with two-slots in every month. The groups in 5 staff teams will solely have eight matches so they may have two free dates in that interval.
Any draw circumstances?
For geopolitical causes, 5 pairings are prohibited so if these nations are drawn in the identical group, a rejig is critical. The pairings are Armenia/Azerbaijan, Belarus/Ukraine, Gibraltar/Spain, Kosovo/Bosnia and Kosovo/Serbia.
On high of that, a most of two ‘winter’ venues could also be drawn into the identical group so Belarus, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania and Norway will likely be affected by that. There are additionally long-distance guidelines which prohibit teams consisting of a number of groups at reverse ends of the continent.
What’s the dream draw then?
Hungary, Finland, Faroe Islands, Gibraltar could be candy if not filled with glamour for the FAI. Poland, Bosnia, Azerbaijan and Moldova is another.
The nightmare?
It could be robust to place a optimistic slant on Spain, France, Turkey and Slovakia or Belgium, England, Greece and Northern Eire or any mixture of similar. If Pot 2 and Pot 4 are sort, Kenny would seemingly come to phrases with no matter comes out elsewhere.
Might familiarity breed contempt?
Sure, it’s potential to land Denmark, Wales and Georgia. Reality be instructed, whereas Georgia are on the rise, led by their new star Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Kenny may settle for that pool if it was supplied now given Denmark and Wales are each weak to a World Cup hangover.
What’s the draw format?
UEFA have mentioned they may begin with the best ranked groups and work down from there so the primary drama of the draw will likely be when Pot 3 comes round as Eire and the opposite groups of their pot will know the Pot 1 and Pot 2 mixtures and have a transparent thought on once they’d prefer to be drawn out. Kenny and the FAI delegation might want to have their greatest poker face prepared for when the digicam comes their means.
