Regular Lengthy-Time period Outlook for Beef Sector Regardless of Quick-Time period Pressures

With tight meat provides worldwide and the disaster in Ukraine including to issues over meals safety, the newest market replace by Hybu Cig Cymru – Meat Promotion Wales (HCC) forecasts a steady long-term outlook for manufacturing within the beef sector in Wales regardless of present inflation points affecting each farmers and customers.

HCC’s Month-to-month Market Bulletin analyses newest cattle census knowledge from the British Cattle Motion Service (BCMS), concluding that provides onto the market could enhance barely within the subsequent six months, however that thereafter regular manufacturing patterns will resume barring unexpected occasions.

In keeping with newest figures, the overall variety of cattle and calves on the bottom in Britain stood at 8 million head as of 1 July 2022 – a rise of 0.3% on the yr, however 0.5% smaller than in July 2020. Beef cattle numbers recorded a rise of 0.7% to five.2 million head, while the dairy herd contracted by 0.6% – a continuation of the development seen in recent times.

Trying in additional element, the comparatively plentiful provide of cattle of 12-30 months of age largely destined for beef manufacturing would point out sturdy manufacturing volumes within the brief time period. Nevertheless the census figures counsel that the contraction in each the meat and dairy breeding herds (because of elevated throughput of older cattle) may act as a limiting issue on additional progress in beef manufacturing.

Newest figures from different main beef producing nations such because the USA counsel that international manufacturing is unlikely to rise markedly within the brief time period, thereby giving confidence to Welsh beef producers that international demand will proceed to help market costs.

HCC Information Analyst Glesni Phillips mentioned,

“The brand new BCMS knowledge exhibits that, though inflation within the wider economic system is affecting each farmers and customers in the meanwhile, there may be cause for optimism that we’ll see regular situations on the manufacturing aspect in the long run.

“Client demand is being affected by value of residing pressures, with extra demand for cheaper cuts and mince. Excessive enter prices for farmers are additionally an element within the projected rise in UK beef manufacturing within the brief time period, as some producers will look to keep away from holding further inventory over this winter.

“Nevertheless, worldwide demand continues to be buoyant, with UK beef exports having elevated considerably throughout 2022. Manufacturing ranges in lots of key competitor nations should not set to rise, subsequently tendencies revealed on this latest knowledge ought to give long-term confidence to farmers within the beef sector right here in Wales.”

HCC’s Market Bulletin for September additionally comprises the newest information on market worth tendencies for farmers and processors, and is offered at meatpromotion.wales/en/news-industry-info/market-bulletin