Information Temporary by Kip Hansen – 27 September 2022 (up to date 11:10 am)
[ click here for latest NOAA image ]
Hurricane Ian is projected to run proper up the mouth of Florida’s Tampa Bay, making landfall as a Main Hurricane. The risk offered by this hurricane will depend on exactly the place the eyewall hits which additionally determines which route the strongest winds are blowing when it makes landfall.
If Hurricane Ian hits Tampa Bay, simply north of the Decrease Tampa Bay (see map beneath), the strongest winds, and thus the best quantity of storm surge can be pushed up into the shallow Higher Bay, doubtlessly inflicting widespread flooding for the parts of the encircling cities, a lot of that are constructed on outdated flood plains just some toes above Imply Larger Excessive Water – the very best of Tampa Bay’s common excessive tides.
NOAA’s projected tracks enhance because the time window will get smaller. At 72 hours out, these projections are correct to about 100 miles. On Sunday, Ian was projected to hit Florida the place the panhandle joins the principle north-south physique of the state. Now it’s focused straight at Tampa Bay with simply over 48 hours remaining to landfall.
As you may see, Tampa Bay may be very shallow — 1 to 4 meters on the deepest. [See this nautical chart] There are barrier islands alongside the Gulf shore, off Clearwater and Largo. They are going to be totally submerged by something extra of six toes of surge. Giant elements of Pinellas Park, single household properties most of it, can be flooded, together with nearly all of the bay-facing neighborhoods.
Utilizing the NOAA Sea Stage Rise viewer, first at Imply Larger Excessive Water, then with 5 toes of storm surge and eventually with an unlikely, however potential, ten toes of surge. The very-light blue areas are inundation.
Solely time will inform. Whereas a 50 mile shift north or south will make the world of distinction for the Tampa/St Petersburg space, a serious hurricane hitting this space, which has been spared a serious hurricane occasion for practically a century, can be a real catastrophe and create an actual disaster as properties are destroyed and maybe tens of millions lose electrical energy for every week or extra.
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UPDATE: 11 am Tuesday:
The 11 am path projection for Hurrican Ian now seems to be proven as making landfall simply south of the Decrease Tampa Bay, which places the very best winds and largest quantity of storm surge down between Sarasota and Port Charollette/Punta Gorda. [ map ]
That’s factor if it involves cross. Good for Tampa Bay dangerous of Punta Gorda which is on the head finish of an extended bay and should sufferer the identical destiny as feared above for Tampa Bay.
Creator’s Remark:
I lived on this space way back, and my first baby was born there. Someway Tampa/St Pete was often called a hurricane secure space. It had not suffered a direct hit since 1921.
I hope the residents there’ll put together nicely and comply with evacuation recommendation early.
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