Political maps of England, whether or not parliamentary or council, typically resemble multi-coloured archipelagos in a sea of blue. Whereas city areas are battlegrounds contested by all of the bigger events, rural areas tilt strongly in the direction of the Conservatives.
This reservoir of seats on which the Cons have been capable of rely for a number of electoral cycles offers them a strong base from which to achieve for a majority, and leaves the opposing events – Labour, LibDems and Greens – hoping for an occasional edge. Regardless of the causes for this imbalance – difficulties in recruiting campaigners, harder communication challenges, entrenched views in established communities – it has been part of political algebra for a very long time.
Will this proceed to be the case? Whereas information factors at parliamentary degree are onerous to return by, there’s a regular stream of by-elections at council degree we will analyse.
From Might to August this 12 months, there have been 36 council by-elections throughout England in seats held by the Conservatives: 15 city, 21 rural. Trying simply at wins, the outcomes are related: the Cons efficiently defended 4 (36%) city seats, and 6 (40%) rural seats.
As a part of wider evaluation of council by-election outcomes, I’ve developed the Secure Ward Index (SWI), evaluating on a scale of 0-100 how secure a celebration’s management of a ward. It’s calculated utilizing a weighted historical past of the final 4 electoral cycles within the ward.
In city seats, the common SWI for Con holds is 97.8, and for losses 59.6. This is sensible: the Cons are efficiently defending very secure seats, whereas struggling in marginal seats the place different events have had previous successes.
In rural seats, the common SWI for Con holds is 92.3, and for losses 90.7. In rural areas, the Cons are shedding seats at a major fee, in wards which needs to be as secure for them as those they’re holding.
Whereas the pattern just isn’t large, this does appear like a major efficiency hole. If this continues at council degree, then there could possibly be an sudden hazard for the Cons in subsequent 12 months’s council elections in rural shire districts; and if it continues as much as parliamentary then Westminster arithmetic could change drastically.
Whereas it’s troublesome to say definitively why that is occurring, I can provide some hypothesis as to doable causes:
1. Brexit. There’s some proof that farming communities, and rural populations, are lower than proud of the outcomes of Brexit. Loyalty to the celebration that offered them Brexit could also be waning.
2. Adjustments within the Conservative celebration ideas. Over the previous few years, the Cons have shifted their focus from the ideas and insurance policies which have historic resonated with communities like these in the direction of the city, working class voters of the ‘Pink Wall’.
3. Tactical alliances and tactical voting. In some areas, the progressive events have been exploring electoral alliances, implicit or specific, to focus on the Cons. And voters too appear to be getting extra conscious of how to decide on probably the most viable challenger to unseat the Cons.
4. Working from dwelling. Important numbers of progressive, well-educated voters who lean in the direction of the events of the left are sometimes in city employment. As working practices evolve post-pandemic, those that have commuted from rural areas could have seen appreciable of time freed up from commuting which could possibly be diverted into campaigning, or turning into a councillor. And people residing throughout the city space they work in could have now had a possibility to shift their work-life stability and transfer out to the countryside, with related ensuing selections.
James Doyle
James Doyle is a former councillor and parliamentary candidate from West Sussex with 30 years expertise working and analysing elections for the LibDems and Greens.
PS – though there have been some by-elections in September, the Might to August interval used above is a handy breakpoint, which might then be adopted by Sept-Dec and Jan-Apr durations. If you need the complete image updated, then the SWI figures are (city) 97.8 for holds and 62.3 for losses, and (rural) 92.3 for holds and 88.9 for losses. So, similar to the figures above in any case.
