As those that go to the location repeatedly will know I’ve a largish wager on the Tories recording a ballot lead throughout September. My reasoning has all the time been that the brand new Conservative chief, which we’ll know on September sixth, is more likely to see one thing of a bounce for the celebration within the interval instantly afterwards.
I’ve been very a lot influenced by what occurred to Labour in June 2007 following the departure of Tony Blair and the arrival at Quantity 10 of Gordon Brown. There was a big polling transfer to the celebration which lasted till the October when, as all of us recall, Brown misplaced his nerve about holding an early election
The Wikipedia desk above exhibits all of the revealed polls for the final month or so and as could be seen there was one thing of a shift to Labour prior to now week. Three of the final 4 polls have double-digit leads for the celebration whereas the opposite one from Opinium exhibits a marked transfer from what it was beforehand recording.
Throughout this vacation interval the Tories have been receiving an unlimited quantity of media protection due to the management election and the possible winner Liz truss has been within the information a good bit. The flip to Labour within the polls of the previous few days is what issues me about my wager.
Mike Smithson
