We had some ballot questions out with Panelbase final week. The outcomes had been in most methods wholly unsurprising, in step with all earlier polls on the topic. Right here they’re.
These are the headline numbers. However the element is price a delve.
The primary query in all probability wants a little bit of explaining. Many of the choices provided will in all probability strike most readers as astonishingly sexist, for the excellent motive that they’re. However each one in every of them was taken both from official Scottish Authorities documentation referring to gender laws, or from solutions given by trans activists to the query “What’s a girl?”
There’s a motive so many politicians refuse to reply that query, together with most lately the First Minister herself.
It’s as a result of aside from a organic definition, it’s merely inconceivable to take action with out resorting to outdated stereotypes, and all however the dimmest proponents of Gender Identification Concept know that that’s a horrible look.
Our ballot discovered an enormous gulf on this query between younger males and everybody else. Simply 50% of them outlined “lady” biologically, with all the opposite age/intercourse teams returning big majorities averaging over 76% (or greater than 3:1).
Curiously, younger girls – who’re usually the group most inclined to trans ideology – lined up very a lot with the mainstream on this query. Actually, the numbers for younger girls had been precisely the identical (72%) as the general populace. We’ll come again to that.
Political variations had been noticeable however nonetheless all throughout the identical aspect of the talk. SNP and Labour voters had been least more likely to provide the organic definition, however nonetheless did so by an enormous margin of greater than 2:1, whereas Tory and Lib Dem voters had been nearer 4:1.
Equally, whereas there have been gaps between Sure/No and Stay/Depart voters, none of them got here near flipping the outcome. Each Sure and Stay voters nonetheless opposed the whole idea of male folks with the ability to turn into “girls” by a minimum of 2:1, whereas No and Stay voters had been 4:1 and 3:1 in opposition to respectively.
4 of the events within the Scottish Parliament have pledged to trip roughshod over the views of their voters by supporting the Scottish Authorities’s self-ID proposals, and even the Scottish Tories have been rather more equivocal on the topic than their UK counterparts at Westminster.
So in Thursday’s election there are NO main events that voters can select who will signify the desires of the big majority of the citizens. As regards to gender, there’s successfully no democracy in Scotland.
(Smaller events like Alba, who’ve sturdy insurance policies in defence of girls’s rights, are solely standing in a small proportion of seats – in Alba’s case, fewer than 10%.)
The opposite questions inform the identical story, with one fascinating quirk.
Query 2 is in virtually all significant senses the identical query as Query 1, and received just about the identical responses throughout the board, with one exception. The placing distinction – sufficiently big to trigger a 7% shift within the general determine – is within the numbers for younger girls, who flip from 72-28 in opposition to in Q1 to 58-42 in favour in Q2.
It’s troublesome to elucidate this obvious anomaly. (On questions 3 and 4, younger girls reverted to opposition to gender reform proposals, by 3:1 and a couple of:1 respectively.) However one risk displays the vastly disproportionate rise in younger girls being referred to gender id clinics, versus every other group.
In an eight-year interval to 2018, the variety of boys referred to such clinics the UK leapt by over 1,200% (from 57 to 713). However the numbers for women skyrocketed by over 4,500% (from 40 to 1,806). In lower than a decade, women have gone from 40% of instances to virtually 72%. Abigail Shrier, the creator of the acclaimed e book “Irreversible Harm”, characterises this as women “fleeing womanhood like a home on fireplace“.
The principle distinction between questions 1 and a couple of is that query 2 is sex-neutral whereas query 1 is female-specific. It appears an a minimum of plausibly coherent rationalization for the obvious contradiction that younger girls are anxiously defending their territory in Q1 (and extra actually in This fall), whereas making an attempt to maintain open the choice to flee it in Q2. However that’s solely a speculative interpretation.
What isn’t open to interpretation is that the majority of Scotland’s political events maintain their very own voters in contempt on this difficulty, not to mention these of their opponents. Within the coming election, actuality and biology don’t have any champions.
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The total knowledge tables are right here.
