The Atlantic continues to lie dormant as August begins, which is nice information for these hoping to keep away from hurricanes. Whereas the quiet is nearly actually going to interrupt ultimately, every day that goes by in August and September with no storm is an effective day.
Tropical outlook in a sentence
Issues stay quiet within the Atlantic basin with no actual improvement anticipated over the subsequent week.
The place to look at in August
Because the calendar flips to August, we get into the guts of hurricane season. Mainly, mid-August via late September is our marathon stretch. For Houston, our dangers in August are nonetheless largely near residence.
Utilizing NOAA’s unbelievable historic hurricane instrument, we will get a way of the place to look at particular to Houston. Because the 1800s, Houston has had 10 hurricanes go inside 100 miles of downtown within the month of August. For those who develop this to incorporate tropical storms, the quantity will increase to 17. Apart from the 1915 storm (one that’s worthy of a weblog publish of its personal at some point), all of August’s hurricanes in Houston fashioned in both the far western Caribbean or Gulf. In different phrases, whereas we watch the deep Atlantic and sometimes talk about long-tracking hurricanes, they usually don’t affect us in August. That doesn’t imply they will’t, as 1915 proves, however our consideration ought to be primarily centered near residence this month.
Sure, we’re speaking tropical waves that wrestle throughout the Atlantic, however maintain collectively sufficient to in the end develop within the Gulf. However we’re additionally in search of thunderstorm complexes that roll off the Gulf Coast into the open water. Or early season (weak) chilly fronts that die off within the Gulf.
Notably, of the 17 complete hurricanes and tropical storms (together with Harvey) to go inside 100 miles of Houston in August, 15 fashioned within the Gulf or far western Caribbean. Once more, nearer to house is the place the meat of our threat lies in August. This additionally means storms can kind rapidly, so it’s vital to have a plan and preparations in place ought to one thing kind.
Something to look at now?
If we have a look throughout the Atlantic Ocean, there’s actually not a lot occurring in the mean time.
We’ve got a pair waves which might be disorganized out within the open Atlantic, however none that’s presently anticipated to develop because it comes west. There are a handful of mannequin ensemble members attempting to type of develop one of many subsequent couple waves that emerges off Africa. However as of as we speak at the very least, no dependable mannequin steering exhibits something within the Gulf over the subsequent 7-10 days or extra. That mentioned, with pretty frequent storm clusters hovering close to the northern Gulf over the subsequent week or so, I wouldn’t solely rule out one thing attempting to weakly arrange, although I believe it might keep east of Texas.
However for August 2nd, that is about pretty much as good because it will get. The Atlantic stays caught on 3 named storms and is now starting to run under common for the season by way of storm depth. Nonetheless, utilizing that metric, 92 % of the season lies in entrance of us. It’s nonetheless far too early to declare the season a “bust,” and it’s critically vital to do not forget that one storm can spoil the entire season for any given place. Alicia did simply that to Houston in 1983, the fifth quietest hurricane season on file. So be cautious of creating daring declarations on August 2nd.
