All of the potential years are coming collectively
One of many liveliest political betting markets over the previous couple of months has been on which 12 months Johnson will lastly stop to be Prime Minister. As might be seen issues have moved sharply and there’s is in the meanwhile no actual consensus about when he’s going to go.
He has made statements to the impact that he won’t go of his personal accord which signifies that he needs to be pressured out and the mechanism for that may be a confidence vote amongst Tory MPs. We had a type of earlier within the month which Johnson received however not by very a lot.
I ponder whether there’s one other exit chance. If a number of main cupboard ministers resolve to stroll out it might be very tough for Johnson to hold on.
Trying over the chart, primarily based on Betfair trades, the worst it obtained for Johnson was in January when a 2022 exit touched 78% within the betting.
Mike Smithson
